OH DEAR - THIS IS GETTING TIRING
So called “property analyst” Kieran Trass is again telling us his 2005 predictions of “a 40% crash in apartment values” (I forced him then on National Radio’s Morning Report to admit he was actually buying apartments flat out) have come true.
The opposite has happened as I predicted.
His latest “Hybrid Report” just released and the toast of the press predicts “Auckland’s CBD apartments to fall further in value over the next two years.”
He states there are, as he predicted, “thousands of vacant apartments” in the city.
Hello?
There must be a catch.
Oh yes, do not buy an apartment unless you contact his organization first.
Got it.
The facts are Kieran Trass, being in the “property advice” business has a vested interest in affecting the market to his and his clients’ advantage. His completely wrong allegation that there are thousands of vacant apartments in the CBD is cleverly based on 2006 Census figures. Having 8 staff solely dedicated to Rentals and Management and never more than five or six vacancies I really scratched my head over this.
Until I chatted about it over lunch with a Body Corporate Secretary who burst out laughing and nearly blew a mouthful of chardonnay over me in the process.
He explained that at every Census he gets called by the Census people to grant access to his 48 apartment buildings so that their collecters can knock on doors to collect the forms.
Understandably he politely declines because it would take him weeks to accompany collectors with floor by floor security and so many buildings to access. He believes other Secretaries and certainly the Building Managers do likewise.
The Census Department have confirmed to me that if they don’t get access they simply tick the “VACANT “ box.
Hence the “thousands of vacant apartments in the city”.
Nice analyses Kieran – if you had simply rung the Rental Department of Bayleys, Barfoots or City Sales you would have heard that tenancies were full with burgeoning demand but, that wouldn’t have grabbed the headlines and promoted your “services”.
Yes, I will repeat myself.
Tenancy is strong
Supply of new apartments is essentially over.
First home buyers are pushing values UP.
Current selling prices are at around half replacement cost.
Are there any ducks not in this row?
Call us.
MARTIN
